With the upcoming UK general election scheduled to take place on December 12th, Brexit promises and policy have proved to play a large part in determining the outcome and party allegiances for voters.
(Conservative supporters (80%) and Liberal Democrats (86%) -as demonstrated below in the data from Ipsos Mori).
The exact reason for calling the election originally was due to opposition within the House of Commons to the Brexit deal negotiated by Boris Johnson’s Conservative Government. Due to opposition to both the deal and ruling out a no-deal outcome, the Benn Act was passed which forced Boris Johnson to call for an extension to the deal negotiation deadline of October 31st. What the Conservatives hope for in obtaining a majority in the general election is to get Boris’ deal passed before the new deadline of January 31st.
The Conservative Party’s Brexit strategy is to leave on terms negotiated with the European Union by Boris Johnson, which differ slightly from Theresa May’s previous deal in terms of the changes at the Irish border. These terms include the removal of the controversial Irish backstop and replacing the system with a new customs arrangement, allowing goods to transfer freely across the Irish border whilst simultaneously allowing the UK to strike its own Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world.
A problem however, lies with the Conservative’s allies in the House of Commons, the DUP, who see the deal as a threat between the union of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This is because if such a deal is passed, what it would mean is that Northern Ireland would have to stay compliant with some EU rules so checks would have to be placed on goods coming from Britain to Northern Ireland. Although more generally, the DUP remain in support of leaving the European Union, the do not favour doing so under the new terms negotiated by Boris Johnson. That said, what they wish for is to be given a veto on any future customs agreement, to ensure it would be in the best interests of Northern Ireland.
In terms of the other parties, Labour plans to renegotiate the deal with the EU and offer a choice to the people via a second referendum. Their pledge is to negotiate a new deal within 3 months of being elected and then within 6 months offer a choice to people between leaving with the renegotiated deal or remaining within the European Union. This is at contrast with the Liberal Democrats who wish to cancel Brexit altogether, although have also said they would support a second referendum if they do not obtain a majority after December 12th.
By Nathan Howell
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