Throughout negotiations between the UK and the EU regarding the terms of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, there has been an increasing division between the constituents of the United Kingdom. With Scotland voting with a 62% majority to remain in the historic referendum, the decision to leave the UK has led to increased calls within Scotland for independence. The UK still faces issues surrounding its ongoing relationship to the EU also, with the exact terms being negotiated over the next 12 months as well as uncertainty arising surrounding the recent Irish general election.
Based on a recent YouGov poll, shown above, demand for independence within Scotland has reached a critical point with a majority (51%) indicating that they would vote yes in a poll on leaving the UK post-Brexit. Other recent polls which have been conducted suggest similar trends, demonstrating the risk to the Union of the pursuit of Brexit by the UK government. Such results may be both a cause of Brexit developments as well as a result of comments made by Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, suggesting that the EU would enthusiastically welcome Scotland back so long as various legal requirements were met.
These growing poll numbers in support of Scottish independence have led to increased calls from the Scottish National Party (SNP) for a third referendum on their independence from the UK. The UK government’s solution to the loss of the European Social Fund, a mechanism for funding regional policy within the EU, has also entered the debate. Potential issues regarding sovereignty over how the funds are allocated within Scotland may arise, with the UK government hoping to retain control and the SNP hoping to be able to control its own regional policy.
As of now, the UK’s relationship with the EU remains the same as before the historic referendum. Having just entered a transition period, in which terms of the future relationship with the EU will be finalised, the UK will remain within the single market and customs union for the next 12 months until an agreement is reached. Various areas of policy are up for discussion including trade barriers, regulation and energy supply which both sides must agree on in order for the UK to complete its withdrawal. Boris Johnson has insisted that the transition period will not be extended, but the European Commission has cast doubts over being able to accomplish such a lengthy agreement within this tight timeframe.
Meanwhile in the Republic of Ireland, the recent general election has resulted in no party having a clear majority within the Dáil (Irish lower house). This partly comes as a result of the rise of Sinn Fein in popularity, who are critical of the Brexit deal negotiated by the previous Taoiseach Leo Varadkar with the UK government. If Sinn Fein are able to establish a majority within the Dáil then this could add to the complexity of Brexit negotiations, as calls for an economically united Ireland could alter the terms of the Brexit deal with respect to Northern Ireland’s current treatment as a special economic zone.
Nathan Howell
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