After Brexit, the Irish border will be the only land border between the UK and EU. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 was a key event in Irish history, ending the Troubles by building relations between Britain, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and eliminating borders between the latter two nations. However, the Agreement seems to have been a political afterthought as far as Brexit is concerned, creating palpable unease as October draws closer.
The initial problem has arisen from the fact that after Brexit, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could be in different customs regimes, meaning that different legislation within each jurisdiction will restrict movement across the border. But despite best efforts, the issue of the border has not been easy to solve. A number of MPs resigned when Prime Minster at the time, Theresa May, proposed a Brexit agreement featuring provisions for a backstop. Concerns were raised over the implications of the UK remaining in the Single Market in order to preserve trade with the Republic of Ireland as this could inhibit the UK’s ability to form its own trade deals.
So, what are the options for such a contentious issue? A soft Brexit could involve the negotiation of a Free Trade Area in the event that the UK was not to remain in the Single Market. Either option would allow the free movement of goods, services and people across Irish border, resulting in few noticeable changes. On the other hand, the hard Brexit or no-deal scenarios are more complicated. Physical borders may be implemented as in the past, which could see Ireland take a hit in the form of a “permanent loss of 3.1% of GDP by 2030” according to Open Europe. A no-deal Brexit would subject the UK to WTO trade rules, which, as very aptly put by European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas, would mean that “[Ireland] will have a hard border”. Such a scenario would blur the future of Irish relations if former tensions arise again and is a predicament which politicians on both sides of the border are keen to avoid.
In August, Boris Johnson proposed a backstop insurance policy in order to avoid a hard border in Ireland. This would be achieved through a temporary customs union and would require the Republic of Ireland to deviate from EU rules. Understandably, the proposal was not met warmly, with one senior MP stating, “It’s designed to say ‘look, I tried’ and then we leave without a deal” after renouncing the proposal to be “complete crap”. Similar sentiment was expressed also by both EU and Irish officials, and the overwhelmingly negative response appears to have wiped the plan off the table, instead replacing it with a proposal of a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland. Investigations are currently being undertaken into how the bridge might be afforded.
It is clear that nobody wants the hard border back, but with the spectre of a hard Brexit looming, only time will tell.
By Amelia Hacon
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