The type of deal being pursued by the British government has changed tack based on the direction taken by the Conservative leadership. Theresa May’s previous direction of Brexit negotiations involved negotiating with the EU to ensure that a deal that satisfies both parties could be achieved, even if it meant delaying the final decision to leave from the original deadline of 29th March 2019. The results of these negotiations led to a deal agreed to by May’s cabinet and the EU, which then went to the House of Commons for a meaningful vote and was rejected on 3 separate occasions, despite amendments being made. The inability to negotiate a Brexit deal that Parliament would agree on ultimately led to Theresa May’s resignation as leader of the Conservative Party on 7th June 2019, accompanied by a new deadline for leaving the EU on the 31st October 2019.
Following the selection process for the new leader, Boris Johnson was chosen as the new Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. He has since elected to take a significantly harder line in negotiations, suggesting on multiple occasions that a no-deal Brexit is not off the table, especially if a deal cannot be agreed upon by the deadline of the 31st October this year. His main reason for this approach is that he believes it will make the EU see he is a candidate who is willing to go through with Brexit whatever it takes. In addition, he hopes that as a result of this the EU will take his negotiation approach more seriously. He has suggested that Theresa May failed to deliver Brexit previously because she didn’t believe in the Brexit ideology, due to her Remain vote in the historic referendum.
Another major difference between Johnson’s approach and May’s is that Boris Johnson is against the idea of the Irish backstop, an agreement which will prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which played a large part in the deal negotiated by Theresa May. He has called said backstop "anti-democratic" according to the BBC. Michael Gove, Johnson’s new Brexit Secretary, has said that the government is ready to pursue alternatives to the backstop which will allow the government to keep up its commitment to having no hard Irish Border. Said alternatives are unpopular within the EU however, so the possibility of any alternative arrangements on the Irish border are unlikely.
Johnson also appears reluctant to pay the £39 billion “divorce bill” to the EU negotiated by May’s government, further antagonising the EU. This almost combative approach to negotiating the final terms of the UK’s exit may cause EU leaders and negotiators to unite in not wanting to renegotiate a deal that has already been agreed upon, meaning a no-deal Brexit is increasingly likely as a result of Boris’ tactics.
By Nathan Howell
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